Tahara and the Jewish Conspiracy

Looks like one of Japan's most prominent anchormen has decided that the Jews were behind the arrest of Ichiro Ozawa's aide. Oh boy, here we go again.

Soichiro Tahara is on a huge network in Japan: TV Asahi. This isn't some talk radio hack. Yet the media in Japan is not covering this. It's a non-issue. Compare Tahara's world-view (the Jews control everything) to Morita's (asking for calm and perspective instead of conspiracy theories) and you get a sense of how topsy-turvy things are in the Japanese media world.

Ozawa's Grip on Power Slipping Fast

Ichiro Ozawa may be days away from stepping down as head of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan after a scandal implicated his top aide and Nishimatsu Construction in illegal contributions to Ozawa's campaign. Mr. Morita, quoted extensively in this piece from the Asia Times, thinks the opposition leader's political days are numbered. "Ozawa will be forced to resign sooner or later," he was quoted as saying.

Aso now faces the choice of calling for elections soon despite a nationwide dislike for the premier or waiting and allowing the DPJ to get its footing again. Stay tuned.

Conspiracy Theories Flourish in Wake of Arrest

The arrest of the head secretary of opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa and the full-scale criminal investigation into Ozawa's office has led to rampant talk of a US-directed conspiracy against him. I've received many mails asking me why I don't pursue the idea that this is an American plot and that this conspiracy was hatched in the US. Just last week, a Middle East TV station started off its interview with me by asking, "What do you think of the explanation that the arrest of Ozawa's aide was retaliation by the US?" I've heard the same question from a weekly magazine reporter. This conspiracy theory is spreading like wildfire. But I believe this is going too far.

I've been replying that "there is no detailed evidence that proves this theory, so we're not in a position to make these claims," but the people asking the question don't seem to agree. Perhaps they have information that underscores this theory, but I don't.

Those promulgating the theory claim that the US is fearful of what Ozawa will say about the US 7th Fleet (which is based in Yokosuka). But there is so much we'd need to look into to give these claims credence: How has the US reacted to Ozawa's remarks? What is the relationship between the US intelligence community and the Japanese prosecutor's office? The list goes on.

At any rate, this theory is in full bloom. Lots of people are calling this the US and LDP conspiracy. I've felt pressure recently from more people telling me it's a problem if I don't come out and attack this as a conspiracy. This is troubling. I'm hoping for calm. What we need now is sober judgment.

Time for Conversations that Count

"The greatest of all faults is to be conscious of none." — Thomas Carlyle
The government's inconsequential posturing has continued unabated since the financial and economic turmoil began last autumn. A full five months after the Lehman Shock, politicians have not produced a single policy that speaks to this crisis.

The first supplementary budget of fiscal 08, put together by the administration of then-Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, concentrated on measures to offset rising fuel costs. The second supplementary budget is powerless against this crisis because it was based on optimistic forecasts. The 09 budget is based on a framework established by the Fukuda cabinet last summer. Essentially, it caters to the fiscal reform movement.

The administration of Taro Aso has produced nothing but empty policy. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan is focused solely on politics, not policy. Ever since the upper house election in 2007, the relationship between the two houses of Japan's Diet has been similar to the "conflict for conflict's sake" approach taken before World War II by the House of Peers and the House of Representatives. It's a lamentable situation.

"Don't let trivial matters distract you from the important things." — Japanese proverb
The gap between what Aso says and does, and the disgraceful actions on the world stage by former Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa are unforgivable flubs in the realm of politics. While Nakagawa resigned, the Diet has yet to put Aso on notice. The opposition parties in the upper house should quickly call for a vote of censure.

The Diet is not dealing with the No. 1 item of interest among the public: how to break through this economic crisis. DPJ chief Ichiro Ozawa, the likely victor in the next general election, issues comments on all sorts of trivial matters but has forgotten the important ones. The parties need to get together and discuss the issues that really matter!

Printing More Money
At an international gathering, Aso committed Japan to more public spending. But he's all talk. The government as a whole has not moved to loosen financial policies since the Lehman Shock. It has been passive about any spending increase. Moreover, it has been irresolute on financial policy and has connived with large banks on the ruthless credit crunch and credit withdrawals.

Because of this inaction, the economy and the living standard of the Japanese teeter on a cliff. To bring Japan back, the government needs to print more money. Issuing money would give the country new fiscal resources to rebuild. Both sides of the political aisle should investigate this option.

The Move to Discredit Ozawa

Is the recent arrest of a key aide to Ichiro Ozawa connected to Prime Minister Taro Aso's recent visit to Washington DC? In other words, did Aso get the green light from the Obama administration to move against the opposition Democratic Party of Japan before it gets too popular and upsets the US-Japan relationship? At least one blogger and reader of Morita's work thinks so. Anyone else see the connection?

So What Sort of Omiyage Did Aso Bring to DC?

As Prime Minister Taro Aso celebrates Mardi Gras with Barack Obama in the White House, the Mainichi reports that the Aso cabinet has an 11% approval rating back home.

Takehiko Kambayashi has a piece in the Washington Times today about Aso hiding in Obama's shadow in hopes of some sort of magical boost back home. Morita is quoted in the piece as saying the Japanese premier "probably spent hours mulling over what kind of souvenir he would bring to President Obama."

Whatever he brought, I hope it's returnable.

Aso's Ruling Coalition Has Lost Ability to Rule

It's more and more likely that the reign of the Liberal Democratic Party (and the current LDP-New Komeito coalition) will come to an end in the coming general election, and a new administration led by Ichiro Ozawa's Democratic Party of Japan will be born. The day is drawing near when a political avalanche comes crashing down on Japan.

For most of the 64 years since the war, political power has been held by the LDP and the two parties from which the LDP was formed: the Liberal and Democratic parties. This era is coming to an end. The next administration will be led by Ozawa. While there are those in Japan that put the LDP and Ozawa's DPJ in the same boat, politically speaking, the defeat of the LDP and the ascendancy of the acknowledged reformer Ozawa would be a huge event.

The other day, I was invited to take part in the training session of a certain prefecture's commerce and industry society. An executive of the society, whom I'll call Mr. A, is an LDP member but he's also someone who can coolly assess the political climate in his prefecture. Looking at the current political stances around the prefecture, he predicts that "the LDP will be annihilated." In the last general election in September 2005, the prefecture elected three LDP representatives and 1 DPJ member. In the next election, he predicts the LDP will end up with nothing.

It was such a bold prediction that I decided to ask some other friends who live in that prefecture's major city. I asked three of them, and each one replied that they expected the LDP to lose badly in the next vote. I asked each of them on what grounds they predict this LDP collapse, and each replied that the ruling party has lost its base of support. The LDP only listens to New Komeito and Soka Gakkai, came the reply. The party has distanced itself from its traditional hubs of support.

In another prefecture I visited, the news is similar. An executive from a conservative organization there told me, "The LDP won't be able to get anybody elected. Last election, the prefecture was split two and two, but next time the DPJ will probably take all four seats." He offered the same reason I heard earlier: The LDP has lost its base. Agricultural groups, the construction sector and people affiliated with the post office used to supply grass-roots support to the LDP, but now they are distancing themselves from the party.

A majority of the Japanese have begun to realize that the reason the country's provinces are deteriorating is that Japan has adopted policies to Americanize itself. This is primarily the result of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Structural Revolution. But the three cabinets following Koizumi (those of Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda and Taro Aso) have been unable to clearly evaluate these reforms. Koizumi's agenda needs to be repudiated for Japan to rebuild itself, and yet a repudiation of these reforms could lead to a split in the LDP. If the LDP is divided, it has no chance of winning. This is why the party is keeping everything so vague. But this is also the reason former supporters are distancing themselves from the LDP.

The opposition DPJ is overflowing with confidence because members sense that a change in political power is near. The provinces across this nation are experiencing a sweeping grass-roots change.