My Election Predictions

An election special showing on BS 11 entitled "Otana No Jiyu Jikan" (Nov. 27 and 28 at 7 pm) posed the question, "If the election were held today, how many seats would each party take?" After analyzing each of the 300 electoral districts, the program then interviewed three people: election planner Hiroshi Miura, a member of the BS11 general election reporting team and me.

I made predictions for each of the 300 electoral districts as well as the proportional representation seats and came out with an even split between the ruling and opposition parties. I was genuinely surprised by this result.

I predicted that the Liberal Democratic Party would take 209 seats and its coalition partner New Komeito would take 26 for a total of 235. On the other side of the aisle, I had the Democratic Party of Japan taking 205 seats, the Communist Party taking 12, the Social Democrats taking 10, the People's New Party 6 and New Party Daichi 1 for a total of 235. I also predicted 10 independents would win.

My predictions lead to a situation where neither leading party can claim a majority and the tie-breaking votes will be made by the independents. That's the situation. Of course, this is only my prediction. But I was surprised once again when the BS election analyst's predictions were very similar to mine. Mr. Miura predicted that the DPJ would be able to pull out a slim majority.

It's only a prediction, but if after the House of Representatives vote no clear winner has emerged, a political realignment will ensue. In my view, political realignment would probably bring about a grand or midsize coalition.